Global Business in 2026: Growth, Uncertainty, and the AI Shift
Global commerce is expanding, but the ground underneath it keeps moving.
Ecommerce sales reached $6.42 trillion in 2025, up 8.3% year on year (eMarketer).
Forecasts project $6.88 trillion by end of 2026, accounting for 21.1% of all retail sales worldwide (Shopify, Statista).
Cross-border ecommerce alone hit $2.4 trillion in 2025, with Latin America and Southeast Asia posting growth rates above 12% year on year.
On paper, the numbers look strong.
In practice, businesses face a more complex reality than at any point in the last decade.
US trade policy remains volatile.
Europe’s economy is stalling under energy costs and tariff headwinds.
AI is reshaping workforce structures faster than most organisations can adapt.
And the war in Ukraine continues to distort energy markets, supply chains, and investor confidence.
Here is what matters for businesses planning their next move.
AI in Business: From Experiment to Operating Cost
Enterprise spending on generative AI tripled from $11.5 billion in 2024 to $37 billion in 2025 (Menlo Ventures).
Nearly nine in ten companies now report using AI in at least one business function (TechRepublic, 2026).
Worker access to AI tools rose 50% in 2025, with coding emerging as the dominant use case at $4 billion in departmental spend alone (Menlo Ventures).
Deloitte’s 2026 State of AI report found that two-thirds of organisations report productivity gains from AI, but only 20% have achieved measurable revenue growth from their AI investments so far.
McKinsey’s 2025 survey confirmed the gap: 64% of respondents say AI enables their innovation, yet just 39% report enterprise-level EBIT impact.
AI is no longer optional.
It is an operating cost.
Businesses that treat it as a side project will fall behind those embedding it into workflows, customer service, and marketing strategy.
What to Do Now
- Allocate budget for AI integration across customer service, content production, and data analysis
- Upskill teams on AI tools rather than replacing roles outright, 46% of tech leaders cite the AI skills gap as the biggest barrier to implementation
- Audit AI outputs for quality and compliance, especially in regulated sectors
- Prioritise agentic AI use cases for customer support and supply chain management, where Deloitte projects the highest near-term impact
Agentic AI and Autonomous Systems: What Changes in 2026
AI agents that plan, execute, and iterate without human prompts represent the next shift.
McKinsey found that 62% of enterprises are already experimenting with agentic AI, though only 23% are scaling it beyond pilot stage.
Forecasts project the AI agent market will reach $52.6 billion by 2030, growing at 45% CAGR (Netguru).
By 2028, an estimated 15% of day-to-day work decisions could be made autonomously by AI agents, up from effectively 0% in 2024.
For businesses operating across borders, agentic AI creates opportunities in multilingual customer service, automated compliance checking, and real-time supply chain adjustments.
It also creates new risks around governance, data privacy, and accountability that most regulatory frameworks have not yet addressed.
What to Do Now
- Start with bounded, repeatable tasks: rebooking, refund processing, inventory alerts
- Define clear governance frameworks before scaling autonomous workflows
- Ensure compliance with GDPR and local data protection laws, especially when agents handle customer data across jurisdictions
US Tariffs: The Uncertainty Tax on Global Trade
US trade policy under the Trump administration has introduced a level of unpredictability not seen since the 1930s.
Before January 2025, the average effective US tariff rate stood at 2.4%.
By November 2025, it had risen to 16.8%, the highest since 1946 (Yale Budget Lab, Tax Foundation).
US tariff revenue hit $287 billion in 2025, a 192% increase over 2024.
Tariffs on Chinese imports now stand at 47.5% (Peterson Institute).
A 15% base tariff applies to EU goods, with sector-specific rates running far higher on steel (50%), aluminium (50%), and automobiles (25%).
Pharmaceutical tariffs could rise toward 200% by mid-to-late 2026 (J.P. Morgan Global Research).
A Supreme Court ruling on the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs is expected in early 2026, and the outcome could reshape the entire tariff structure retroactively.
For businesses selling into or sourcing from the US market, this is not a policy environment that rewards long-term planning.
It rewards agility, diversified supply chains, and close monitoring of regulatory shifts.
What to Do Now
- Diversify sourcing beyond single-country dependency, especially away from China-only supply chains
- Model tariff scenarios into pricing strategy and margin forecasts
- Monitor the USMCA joint review scheduled for July 2026, which could trigger renegotiation of North American trade terms
- Explore emerging markets in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America where trade barriers are falling (the EU-India free trade agreement took effect in January 2026)
Ukraine: Ongoing Disruption With a Reconstruction Horizon
Nearly four years into the full-scale conflict, the war in Ukraine continues to distort global energy markets, grain supplies, and European economic confidence.
Europe’s economy grew just 0.9% in 2024 (IMF), weighed down by high energy costs and industrial stagnation.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted 0.2% in 2024 and is forecast to grow only 1.2% in 2026 (European Commission).
Russia’s GDP growth slowed to 0.6% in 2025, with the IMF projecting 0.8% for 2026 as wartime economic distortions deepen.
For businesses, the war creates three distinct planning challenges: energy cost volatility across Europe, supply chain fragility in Eastern European corridors, and regulatory complexity around sanctions compliance.
A ceasefire, if reached, would unlock what RAND describes as the largest reconstruction project since World War II, with the World Bank estimating over $500 billion in spending over the next decade.
Ukraine’s defence technology sector is already attracting US and European investment, and the country’s EU accession trajectory positions it as a future market worth watching.
What to Do Now
- Factor European energy volatility into operational cost models
- Review sanctions compliance across supply chains, especially for dual-use goods and financial transactions
- Monitor reconstruction tenders and trade corridor developments for early-mover opportunities
Sustainability: Regulation Is Replacing Goodwill
Sustainability has shifted from a branding exercise to a compliance requirement in most major markets.
The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) now requires detailed ESG disclosures from companies operating in or selling into European markets.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) adds supply chain traceability obligations for commodities including coffee, cocoa, soy, and timber.
Gartner reported that 74% of ecommerce companies invested in green programmes in 2025.
Carbon border adjustment mechanisms are expanding, creating new cost layers for importers who cannot demonstrate low-emission supply chains.
What to Do Now
- Audit supply chains for EUDR compliance and ethical sourcing
- Prepare CSRD-aligned ESG reporting if selling into EU markets
- Position sustainability credentials as a competitive differentiator, not just a compliance checkbox
Remote and Hybrid Work: Settled, Not Solved
Remote and hybrid models are now standard operating procedure for knowledge-work industries.
Cloud platforms, secure collaboration tools, and digital project management have matured enough to support distributed teams across time zones.
For international businesses, remote work expands access to talent pools in lower-cost markets, but it also introduces complexity around employment law, tax obligations, and data residency.
What to Do Now
- Formalise remote work policies that account for cross-border employment regulations
- Invest in cybersecurity infrastructure proportional to the size of your distributed team
- Use location-flexible hiring as a competitive advantage for talent acquisition
Emerging Markets: Where the Growth Is
Southeast Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa are posting the fastest ecommerce growth rates globally.
Latin America leads regional growth at 12.2% year on year, reaching $191.25 billion in ecommerce revenue (EMARKETER).
Mexico’s ecommerce penetration is on track to surpass the US by 2026 (Shopify).
India’s online sales are projected to reach $142.5 billion, growing 24.1% year on year.
Cross-border ecommerce is forecast to grow 107% by 2028 from its 2024 baseline (Statista, Artios).
Expanding into these markets requires more than a translated checkout page.
It requires localised websites, multilingual SEO, local payment integrations, and culturally adapted marketing.
What to Do Now
- Conduct market-specific keyword research in each target language
- Adapt product positioning and content strategy for local audiences
- Partner with regional logistics and payment providers
- Research local registration requirements and regulatory environments before entry
Ecommerce and Digital Transformation: Mobile-First Is Non-Negotiable
Mobile commerce now drives between 60% and 74% of all global ecommerce traffic (multiple sources, 2025-2026).
84% of ecommerce businesses rank AI as their highest technology priority (WiserReview, 2026).
Omnichannel customers have 30% higher lifetime value than single-channel customers.
De minimis exemptions for low-value imports are disappearing across major markets, adding new cost and compliance layers for cross-border sellers.
What to Do Now
- Prioritise mobile UX across all customer-facing pages
- Integrate AI-driven personalisation into product recommendations and email marketing
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect online and offline touchpoints
- Factor customs and de minimis changes into cross-border pricing models
Data Privacy and Cybersecurity: The Cost of Getting It Wrong Keeps Rising
GDPR enforcement fines exceeded €4.5 billion cumulatively by end of 2025.
New regulations in Brazil (LGPD), India (DPDP Act 2023), and across Southeast Asia are creating a patchwork of compliance obligations for international businesses.
AI deployment amplifies privacy risks: automated decision-making, cross-border data transfers, and customer profiling all trigger regulatory scrutiny.
What to Do Now
- Map data flows across every market you operate in
- Appoint or consult a Data Protection Officer for GDPR and equivalent frameworks
- Encrypt customer data at rest and in transit
- Communicate privacy practices clearly on all customer-facing platforms
What Comes Next
2026 is not a year for cautious incrementalism.
AI is restructuring how businesses operate.
Trade policy is being rewritten in real time.
Regulatory environments are diverging across regions.
And the markets with the highest growth potential demand genuine localisation, not surface-level translation.
Businesses that invest in adaptable infrastructure, diversified supply chains, and market-specific digital strategies will outperform those waiting for stability that is not coming.
Plan for volatility.
Build for multiple markets.
And treat AI, localisation, and compliance as connected investments, not separate budget lines.
