Global business trends in 2026: growth, uncertainty and the AI shift
If you sell across borders, your 2025 plan has probably been overturned at least once: US tariffs rebuilt twice, Europe barely growing and AI budgets rising faster than measured returns. The headline numbers hide changes in costs, regulation and market access that affect where the next budget should go.
Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027. World trade volume growth is projected to slow from 5.0 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and stabilize at 4.7 percent in 2027.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Chapter 1, 13 October 2026
| Economy | 2025 | 2026 projection | 2027 projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% |
| United States | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Euro area | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Germany | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Spain | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Russia | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Real GDP growth, annual percentage change.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Table 1.1, 13 October 2026
Below: the trends that change where your next euro or dollar should go, each sourced, with what to do now.
AI in business: from experiment to operating cost
Your competitors are already paying for AI, and the returns are still being measured. Menlo Ventures' survey of US enterprises found spending more than tripled in a year.
Companies spent US$37 billion on generative AI in 2025, up from US$11.5 billion in 2024, a 3.2x increase. Coding was the largest departmental use case at US$4.0 billion. The survey covers US enterprises only.
Source: Menlo Ventures, 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise, December 2025
McKinsey's global survey and Deloitte's enterprise report point to the same gap between use and return.
88% of respondents say their organisations regularly use AI in at least one business function, yet only 39% report any enterprise-level EBIT impact from AI.
Source: McKinsey, The state of AI in 2025: agents, innovation and transformation, November 2025
66% of organisations report productivity and efficiency gains from AI, while 20% say it is already increasing revenue. Survey of 3,235 leaders in 24 countries, August to September 2025.
AI has moved from an isolated experiment into recurring software and implementation budgets. The useful question is which workflows produce a measurable return in customer service, operations or marketing strategy.
What to do now
- Allocate budget for AI integration across customer service, content production and data analysis
- Upskill the teams you have on AI tools, because skills decide more projects than the technology does
- Audit AI outputs for quality and compliance, especially in regulated sectors
- Prioritise agentic AI use cases for customer support and supply chain management, where bounded tasks make results easy to measure
Agentic AI and autonomous systems: what changes in 2026
AI agents could answer your customers in their own language at any hour. Most companies are testing them, and a smaller group is already scaling them.
62% of survey respondents say their organisations are at least experimenting with AI agents, and 23% are scaling an agentic AI system somewhere in the enterprise.
Source: McKinsey, The state of AI in 2025: agents, innovation and transformation, November 2025
Across borders, agents open options in multilingual customer service, compliance checking and supply chains, while most regulators are still writing the governance and privacy rules for them.
What to do now
- Start with bounded, repeatable tasks: rebooking, refund processing, inventory alerts
- Define clear governance frameworks before scaling autonomous workflows
- Ensure compliance with GDPR and local data protection laws, especially when agents handle customer data across jurisdictions
US tariffs: the uncertainty tax on global trade
If the US is one of your markets, your margins there now depend on a legal question as much as a rate. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs, which ended the country-by-country tariffs built on it.
Held: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
Source: Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, 20 February 2026
The administration replaced them with temporary tariffs under Section 122, then, when those expired, with new tariffs under Section 301. The overall burden has settled well above its pre-2025 level.
The average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.0%, roughly where it settled after Section 122 tariffs expired on 24 July and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, it is set to reach 11.8% by the end of 2026.
Source: The Budget Lab at Yale, The State of U.S. Tariffs, updated 24 August 2026
At the USMCA joint review on 1 July 2026 the United States declined to renew the agreement, which stays in force while Washington negotiates separately with Mexico and Canada.
The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.
Spreading sales across markets and suppliers now protects your pricing.
What to do now
- Diversify sourcing beyond single-country dependency
- Model tariff scenarios into pricing strategy and margin forecasts, including the legal basis of each tariff, since that decides how long it can last
- Ask your customs adviser whether IEEPA duties paid in 2025 and early 2026 are eligible for refund
- Explore markets where trade barriers are falling: the EU and India concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement in January 2026, though it only takes effect once it is signed and ratified
Ukraine: ongoing disruption with a reconstruction horizon
If you buy energy, move goods or sell in Europe, the war still sets part of your cost base, distorting energy, grain and European confidence, with the Middle East energy shock adding pressure.
In the euro area, growth is projected at 1.1 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027, unchanged from the April forecast and reflecting the continued drag from higher energy prices and weak consumer confidence.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Chapter 1, 13 October 2026
In practice you plan around three things: volatile energy costs across Europe, fragile supply chains through Eastern European corridors, and sanctions compliance that keeps getting more complex.
A durable ceasefire would open one of the largest reconstruction programmes in modern history. The latest joint assessment by Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations puts the bill above half a trillion euros.
The total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is almost US$588 billion (over €500 billion) over the next decade, as of 31 December 2025.
Source: World Bank, Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment (RDNA5), 23 February 2026
What to do now
- Factor European energy volatility into operational cost models
- Review sanctions compliance across supply chains, especially for dual-use goods and financial transactions
- Monitor reconstruction tenders and trade corridor developments for early-mover opportunities
Sustainability: regulation is replacing goodwill
Sustainability is now a condition of selling into the EU, and meeting each deadline keeps goods moving across the border. The EU scaled back some rules in 2026, and the obligations that remain have firm dates.
The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) was narrowed by the Sustainability Omnibus Directive, published in the Official Journal on 26 February 2026, and now applies to much larger companies than first planned.
CSRD now applies to EU undertakings or groups with more than 1,000 employees and net annual turnover above €450 million, replacing the earlier thresholds of 250 employees, €25 million balance sheet or €50 million turnover.
Source: Latham and Watkins, EU Sustainability Omnibus published in the Official Journal, February 2026
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) adds traceability obligations for commodities including coffee, cocoa, soy and timber. It has been postponed again, to a date that is now close.
Large and medium operators and traders must comply with their main obligations from 30 December 2026; micro and small enterprises from 30 June 2027.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. Importers of covered goods now need authorisation and must buy and surrender certificates for the carbon embedded in what they import.
CBAM applies in its definitive regime from 1 January 2026, with authorisation, reporting and the purchase and surrender of CBAM certificates for importers.
Source: European Commission, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
What to do now
- Audit supply chains for EUDR compliance and ethical sourcing
- Check whether the revised CSRD thresholds still bring you, or your large customers, into scope
- Position sustainability credentials as a competitive differentiator as well as a compliance requirement
Entering emerging markets requires local execution
Southeast Asia, Latin America, India and parts of Africa contain very different growth, payment and regulatory conditions. Treat each country as a separate market rather than applying one emerging-market plan.
Buyers there search, compare and pay in their own languages and on their own platforms. Winning them takes localized websites, multilingual SEO, local payment options and marketing adapted to the culture.
What to do now
- Conduct market-specific keyword research in each target language
- Adapt product positioning and content strategy for local audiences
- Partner with regional logistics and payment providers
- Research local registration requirements and regulatory environments before entry
Ecommerce and digital transformation: mobile comes first
For many cross-border sellers, the phone is a primary storefront. Customers who move between online and offline channels expect prices, stock and service information to remain consistent.
Cross-border selling is also getting dearer: de minimis exemptions for low-value imports are disappearing across major markets, each change adding a cost and a compliance step.
What to do now
- Prioritise mobile UX across all customer-facing pages
- Test personalisation in product recommendations and email marketing against a clear conversion measure
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect online and offline touchpoints
- Factor customs and de minimis changes into cross-border pricing models
Data privacy and cybersecurity: the stakes keep rising
Privacy failures can erase the return from entering a market. GDPR enforcement remains material, and international businesses also have to account for national rules wherever they collect customer or employee data.
Aggregate GDPR fines reported from 25 May 2018 to 10 January 2026 stand at €7.1 billion. European supervisory authorities issued fines of approximately €1.2 billion in 2025.
Source: DLA Piper, GDPR Fines and Data Breach Survey, January 2026
New regulations in Brazil (LGPD), India (DPDP Act 2023) and across Southeast Asia add a patchwork of obligations for international businesses. AI raises the stakes: automated decisions, cross-border data transfers and customer profiling all draw regulatory scrutiny.
What to do now
- Map data flows across every market you operate in
- Check whether the organisation must appoint a Data Protection Officer, and obtain local advice where the rule is unclear
- Encrypt customer data at rest and in transit
- Communicate privacy practices clearly on all customer-facing platforms
Plan AI, localization and compliance together
The markets with the most growth potential demand genuine localization. Businesses that build adaptable operations, diversified supply chains and market-specific digital strategies will pull ahead, because the change is here to stay.
Treat AI, localization and compliance as connected investments, and judge each market on the business it brings in.
