Global business trends in 2026: growth, uncertainty and the AI shift
If you sell across borders, your 2025 plan has probably been overturned at least once: US tariffs rebuilt twice, Europe barely growing, AI budgets rising faster than their returns. Plan next year on this year's facts and your budget goes to the markets that are growing. The global numbers look calm, so the shifts underneath are worth a closer look.
Global growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, down from an average of 3.5% in 2024 to 2025. World trade volume growth is projected to slow from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026.
| Economy | 2025 | 2026 projection | 2027 projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| United States | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Euro area | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Germany | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Spain | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Russia | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Real GDP growth, annual percentage change.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026, Table 1
Below: the trends that change where your next euro or dollar should go, each sourced, with what to do now.
AI in business: from experiment to operating cost
Your competitors are already paying for AI, and the returns are still being measured. Menlo Ventures' survey of US enterprises found spending more than tripled in a year.
Companies spent US$37 billion on generative AI in 2025, up from US$11.5 billion in 2024, a 3.2x increase. Coding was the largest departmental use case at US$4.0 billion. The survey covers US enterprises only.
Source: Menlo Ventures, 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise, December 2025
McKinsey's global survey and Deloitte's enterprise report point to the same gap between use and return.
88% of respondents say their organisations regularly use AI in at least one business function, yet only 39% report any enterprise-level EBIT impact from AI.
Source: McKinsey, The state of AI in 2025: agents, innovation and transformation, November 2025
66% of organisations report productivity and efficiency gains from AI, while 20% say it is already increasing revenue. Survey of 3,235 leaders in 24 countries, August to September 2025.
AI is now an operating cost. The businesses pulling ahead are building it into workflows, customer service and marketing strategy.
What to do now
- Allocate budget for AI integration across customer service, content production and data analysis
- Upskill the teams you have on AI tools, because skills decide more projects than the technology does
- Audit AI outputs for quality and compliance, especially in regulated sectors
- Prioritise agentic AI use cases for customer support and supply chain management, where bounded tasks make results easy to measure
Agentic AI and autonomous systems: what changes in 2026
AI agents could answer your customers in their own language at any hour. Most companies are testing them, and a smaller group is already scaling them.
62% of survey respondents say their organisations are at least experimenting with AI agents, and 23% are scaling an agentic AI system somewhere in the enterprise.
Source: McKinsey, The state of AI in 2025: agents, innovation and transformation, November 2025
Across borders, agents open options in multilingual customer service, compliance checking and supply chains, while most regulators are still writing the governance and privacy rules for them.
What to do now
- Start with bounded, repeatable tasks: rebooking, refund processing, inventory alerts
- Define clear governance frameworks before scaling autonomous workflows
- Ensure compliance with GDPR and local data protection laws, especially when agents handle customer data across jurisdictions
US tariffs: the uncertainty tax on global trade
If the US is one of your markets, your margins there now depend on a legal question as much as a rate. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs, which ended the country-by-country tariffs built on it.
Held: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.
Source: Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287, 20 February 2026
The administration replaced them with temporary tariffs under Section 122, then, when those expired, with new tariffs under Section 301. The overall burden has settled well above its pre-2025 level.
The average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.0%, roughly where it settled after Section 122 tariffs expired on 24 July and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, it is set to reach 11.8% by the end of 2026.
Source: The Budget Lab at Yale, The State of U.S. Tariffs, updated 24 August 2026
At the USMCA joint review on 1 July 2026 the United States declined to renew the agreement, which stays in force while Washington negotiates separately with Mexico and Canada.
The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.
Spreading sales across markets and suppliers now protects your pricing.
What to do now
- Diversify sourcing beyond single-country dependency
- Model tariff scenarios into pricing strategy and margin forecasts, including the legal basis of each tariff, since that decides how long it can last
- Check whether IEEPA duties you paid in 2025 and early 2026 are eligible for refund
- Explore markets where trade barriers are falling: the EU and India concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement in January 2026, though it only takes effect once it is signed and ratified
Ukraine: ongoing disruption with a reconstruction horizon
If you buy energy, move goods or sell in Europe, the war still sets part of your cost base, distorting energy, grain and European confidence, with the Middle East energy shock adding pressure.
Euro area growth is projected at 0.9% in 2026, 0.2 percentage point lower than in April, reflecting weak momentum and higher energy prices.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026, Table 1
In practice you plan around three things: volatile energy costs across Europe, fragile supply chains through Eastern European corridors, and sanctions compliance that keeps getting more complex.
A durable ceasefire would open one of the largest reconstruction programmes in modern history. The latest joint assessment by Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations puts the bill above half a trillion euros.
The total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is almost US$588 billion (over €500 billion) over the next decade, as of 31 December 2025.
Source: World Bank, Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment (RDNA5), 23 February 2026
What to do now
- Factor European energy volatility into operational cost models
- Review sanctions compliance across supply chains, especially for dual-use goods and financial transactions
- Monitor reconstruction tenders and trade corridor developments for early-mover opportunities
Sustainability: regulation is replacing goodwill
Sustainability is now a condition of selling into the EU, and meeting each deadline keeps goods moving across the border. The EU scaled back some rules in 2026, and the obligations that remain have firm dates.
The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) was narrowed by the Sustainability Omnibus Directive, published in the Official Journal on 26 February 2026, and now applies to much larger companies than first planned.
CSRD now applies to EU undertakings or groups with more than 1,000 employees and net annual turnover above €450 million, replacing the earlier thresholds of 250 employees, €25 million balance sheet or €50 million turnover.
Source: Latham and Watkins, EU Sustainability Omnibus published in the Official Journal, February 2026
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) adds traceability obligations for commodities including coffee, cocoa, soy and timber. It has been postponed again, to a date that is now close.
Large and medium operators and traders must comply with their main obligations from 30 December 2026; micro and small enterprises from 30 June 2027.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. Importers of covered goods now need authorisation and must buy and surrender certificates for the carbon embedded in what they import.
CBAM applies in its definitive regime from 1 January 2026, with authorisation, reporting and the purchase and surrender of CBAM certificates for importers.
Source: European Commission, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
What to do now
- Audit supply chains for EUDR compliance and ethical sourcing
- Check whether the revised CSRD thresholds still bring you, or your large customers, into scope
- Position sustainability credentials as a competitive differentiator as well as a compliance requirement
Remote and hybrid work: settled, with obligations to plan for
Remote and hybrid work gives you access to talent in lower-cost markets, and the tools to run distributed teams have matured. Plan for employment law, tax obligations and data residency, which follow each hire across the border.
What to do now
- Formalise remote work policies that account for cross-border employment regulations
- Invest in cybersecurity in proportion to the size of your distributed team
- Use location-flexible hiring as a competitive advantage for talent acquisition
Emerging markets: where the growth is
Southeast Asia, Latin America, India and parts of Africa post the fastest ecommerce growth. The businesses that win there localize the whole buying journey, from the first search to the checkout page.
Buyers there search, compare and pay in their own languages and on their own platforms. Winning them takes localized websites, multilingual SEO, local payment options and marketing adapted to the culture.
What to do now
- Conduct market-specific keyword research in each target language
- Adapt product positioning and content strategy for local audiences
- Partner with regional logistics and payment providers
- Research local registration requirements and regulatory environments before entry
Ecommerce and digital transformation: mobile comes first
Your buyers now shop on their phones first, and they expect personalised recommendations as standard. Customers who move between online and offline channels expect the experience to follow them.
Cross-border selling is also getting dearer: de minimis exemptions for low-value imports are disappearing across major markets, each change adding a cost and a compliance step.
What to do now
- Prioritise mobile UX across all customer-facing pages
- Build AI-driven personalisation into product recommendations and email marketing
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect online and offline touchpoints
- Factor customs and de minimis changes into cross-border pricing models
Data privacy and cybersecurity: the stakes keep rising
Getting privacy right in each market now protects as much as a year's profit there. GDPR enforcement is holding steady: European regulators fined roughly as much in 2025 as in 2024, and breach notifications are climbing.
Aggregate GDPR fines reported from 25 May 2018 to 10 January 2026 stand at €7.1 billion. European supervisory authorities issued fines of approximately €1.2 billion in 2025.
Source: DLA Piper, GDPR Fines and Data Breach Survey, January 2026
New regulations in Brazil (LGPD), India (DPDP Act 2023) and across Southeast Asia add a patchwork of obligations for international businesses. AI raises the stakes: automated decisions, cross-border data transfers and customer profiling all draw regulatory scrutiny.
What to do now
- Map data flows across every market you operate in
- Appoint or consult a Data Protection Officer for GDPR and equivalent frameworks
- Encrypt customer data at rest and in transit
- Communicate privacy practices clearly on all customer-facing platforms
Plan AI, localization and compliance together
The markets with the most growth potential demand genuine localization. Businesses that build adaptable operations, diversified supply chains and market-specific digital strategies will pull ahead, because the change is here to stay.
Treat AI, localization and compliance as connected investments, and judge each market on the business it brings in.
